[SMM Cobalt Morning Meeting Summary] High social inventory and weak demand, refined cobalt to fluctuate in the short term

Refined Cobalt:

Refined cobalt prices continued to drop slightly this Monday. On the supply side, smelters maintained long-term contract supplies with limited spot quotations, while ex-factory prices remained stable due to production cost constraints. Domestic futures prices declined, prompting traders to follow suit with lower quotations and transaction prices. On the demand side, elevated social inventory levels combined with weakened downstream demand amid high temperatures led most producers to adhere to just-in-time procurement, keeping actual transactions subdued. Refined cobalt prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term, with future price movements contingent on cost increases and social inventory depletion.

Intermediate Products:

Spot prices for cobalt intermediate products continued rising this Monday, with some enterprises reporting small-plant cargo prices reaching 12.3-12.4 and large-plant quotations below 13. On the supply side, cobalt intermediate resources remain concentrated as miners suspended quotations, while traders continued raising prices amid bullish sentiment. On the demand side, smelters faced production losses and sluggish downstream demand, prompting most enterprises to prioritize inventory depletion. Some inventory-deficient smelters inquired in the market but achieved few transactions due to price mismatches with sellers. Overall, China's cobalt intermediate supply will likely face raw material shortages due to DRC policy delays, creating upward price momentum. However, this process requires monitoring of rising raw material costs' dampening effect on downstream demand.

Cobalt Sulphate:

Cobalt sulphate prices stabilized this Monday, with market transactions holding near 50,000-52,000 yuan/mt and no higher-priced deals reported. On the supply side, smelters maintained price support while some traders raised prices due to limited old stock. On the demand side, ternary orders showed no significant improvement, with buyers adopting wait-and-see approaches and digesting prior inventory. LCO and traditional chemical enterprises with better economics made selective purchases, while refined cobalt procurement remained suspended due to poor profitability. Market conditions this Monday remained similar to last week, and cobalt sulphate prices may strengthen further under sustained raw material cost pressures, though demand recovery in the ternary sector warrants observation.

Cobalt Chloride:

Current cobalt chloride quotations stand at 61,000-63,000 yuan/mt, with increased market trading volume compared to previous periods. On the supply side, smelters maintained strong wait-and-see sentiment with few transactions. On the demand side, downstream enterprises held sufficient inventory levels and actively inquired but remained cautious in actual purchases. Transaction prices clustered around 62,000 yuan/mt with rare 63,000 yuan/mt deals. Cobalt chloride prices are expected to stabilize within the 61,000-63,000 yuan/mt range in the near term.

Cobalt Salt (Co3O4):

Current Co3O4 quotations range between 200,000-220,000 yuan/mt, with some enterprises suspending pricing. Both upstream and downstream participants adopted wait-and-see stances, resulting in minimal spot transactions dominated by long-term contract deliveries. On the supply side, Co3O4 producers limited shipments while monitoring market sentiment. On the demand side, LCO cathode plants held lower inventory but adopted cautious procurement due to market volatility. Sellers anticipate transactions at 210,000-230,000 yuan/mt, though high-priced deals remain scarce. Long-term Co3O4 prices will depend on cobalt inventory levels, with industry stock sufficiency through December being critical for price trends.

Cobalt Powder & Others:

Cobalt powder market quotations stabilized this week with subdued transactions and cautious downstream sentiment. Following prior price hikes, downstream enterprises made limited purchases and replenishments, with current procurement willingness remaining weak. In the hard alloy sector, tungsten carbide constitutes 90% of costs at over 370,000 yuan/mt, while cobalt powder accounts for 10%. Recycling volumes are low, focusing on tungsten-cobalt bearing scrap. Though recycled materials offer cost advantages, rising tungsten prices narrowed the price gap with primary materials. Alloy demand has yet to fully materialize but may increase this year.

Ternary Precursor:

Ternary precursor prices remained flat this Monday. Raw material costs stabilized - nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate held steady while manganese sulphate rose slightly, though this had limited impact on precursor pricing. Recent prices edged higher primarily due to cobalt sulphate's minor gains. Discount coefficients between precursor producers and downstream cathode material manufacturers remain unchanged, as sluggish ternary market demand led cathode and battery cell enterprises to reject coefficient increases, leaving precursor suppliers with weak pricing power. Demand from both power and consumer sectors remained mediocre. In the domestic power market, only medium-to-high nickel product orders from top-tier producers showed relative strength. The US power market faces further pressure from recent "Big and Beautiful" policy impacts. Weak terminal demand leaves ternary precursor prices without upward support.

Ternary Material:

Ternary material prices rose slightly this Monday. Raw material costs remained stable for nickel sulphate and lithium hydroxide, with manganese sulphate increasing slightly and cobalt sulphate gains halting. Lithium carbonate surged temporarily due to market sentiment. Discount coefficients between ternary cathode producers and battery cell manufacturers remain unadjusted, as weak demand prompts cell makers to resist coefficient increases. Domestic power market demand concentrated on 6-series products, with orders flowing primarily to top-tier enterprises. Recent mediocre auto sales led cathode material producers to prioritize existing long-term contracts. Amid persistent terminal weakness and market volatility, optimizing customer structures has become pivotal for cathode material producers to maintain market share. July's minor inventory replenishment may boost production, but the long-term ternary cathode market remains in surplus with limited growth potential.

LCO Cathode:

Recent LCO prices surged significantly due to raw material cost changes: battery-grade lithium carbonate prices continued rising while Co3O4 prices showed strong upward momentum amid DRC policy impacts. On the supply side, Co3O4 producers quoted aggressively, though LCO cathode plants showed low procurement willingness at elevated prices. On the demand side, terminal demand is entering the off-season, reducing LCO requirements. Overall, LCO prices will rise substantially alongside Co3O4 and lithium carbonate increases.

》Subscribe to view SMM new energy product spot price history

》Click to view SMM New Energy Industry Chain Database

News:    

[Shanshan Co.: H1 Net Profit Expected to Surge 810-1,266%] Shanshan Co. (600884.SH) issued its 2025 H1 earnings forecast, projecting 160-240 million yuan in net profit attributable to shareholders, up 810.41-1,265.61% YoY. The company focused on core businesses, with combined net profit from anode materials and polarizer segments expected at 350-450 million yuan. Note: Q1 net profit was 33.14 million yuan, implying Q2 net profit of 127-207 million yuan, up 284.85-527.27% MoM. (Finance News)
[China Passenger Car Association (CPCA): Pickup Truck Exports Reach 158,000 Units in H1, Up 41% YoY] According to CPCA data, China's pickup truck market sold 48,000 units in June 2025, up 7.5% YoY and down 7.4% MoM from the previous month, maintaining a high level in the past five years. From January to June 2025, sales reached 307,000 units, up 16.4% YoY compared to the same period in 2024. In terms of exports, 26,400 pickup trucks were exported in June 2025, up 18% YoY but down 8% MoM, with the export share remaining high in the industry. For H1 2025, exports totaled 158,000 units, up 41% YoY. The export share of total pickup truck sales rose from 45% in 2024 to 55% in June 2025 and 52% in H1 2025, reflecting strong growth in China's self-owned pickup truck exports. (Cailian Press)
[Yongxin Lithium: Anticipates H1 Net Loss of 116-173 Million Yuan] Yongxin Lithium (603399.SH) announced it expects a net loss of 173 million yuan to 116 million yuan attributable to shareholders for H1 2025, compared to a profit of 66.8162 million yuan in the same period last year, marking a YoY loss. The performance decline mainly stems from persistent oversupply in the lithium chemicals market and further price declines. Despite risk mitigation efforts through production increases and cost reductions, the company could not offset the adverse impacts of falling prices, resulting in losses in its lithium chemicals segment. (Cailian Press)

SMM New Energy Research Team

Cong Wang 021-51666838

Rui Ma 021-51595780

Ziya Lin 86-2151666902

Disheng Feng 021-51666714

Yanlin Lyu 021-20707875

Zhicheng Zhou 021-51666711

Zihan Wang 021-51666914

Jie Wang 021-51595902

Haohan Zhang 021-51666752

Boling Chen 021-51666836

Mengqi Xu 021-20707868